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Every game Sonny Gray takes the mound, adjusts his hat, and winds up, there tends to be a sense of ease present that has rarely been felt while watching Twins starting pitchers. Gray's intense and unassailable demeanor gives fans an unwavering sense of trust in him on the mound.
On July 2, it was announced that Gray was selected to his third career All-Star game and first as a member of the Twins. Gray and fellow starting pitcher Pablo López were the only Twins in the 2023 All-Star Game. Gray threw a scoreless inning, walked one and struck out two batters, including NL MVP favorite Ronald Acuña Jr.
According to Fan Duel, Gray is tied with fellow Twins All-Star López with the 10th highest odds to win the AL Cy Young Award. Although Gray winning the AL Cy Young Award looks like a long shot, if he can replicate his first-half numbers, Gray will have one of the best seasons for a starting pitcher in Twins history.
In some order, most Twins fans would agree that the greatest seasons for Twins starting pitchers are:
- Johan Santanain 2004 and 2006 (2x Cy Young Award)
- Kenta Maeda in the shortened 2020 season
- Jim Perryin 1970 (Cy Young Award)
- Bert Blylevenin 1973 and 1974
- Frank Violain 1988 (Cy Young Award)
Viola's first half of the 1988 season and Gray's 2023 season are surprisingly similar.
Through 18 starts:
- Gray (2023) posted a 2.89 ERA through 99 2/3 innings pitched and 419 total batters faced.
- Viola (1988) posted a 2.33 ERA through 131 1/3 innings pitched and 529 total batters faced.
Admittedly, there is a significant difference between a 2.33 ERA and a 2.89 ERA, but if you take out Gray's final start before the All-Star break, where he gave up six earned runs through six innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles on July 8, his ERA would be sitting at 2.50. Although Viola and Gray's ERAs have a marginally significant difference, their underlying numbers have quantifiable similarities.
Through 18 starts:
- Gray (2023) currently has a FIP of 2.85, a LOB% of 77.5%, and an elite HR/9 of 0.27 while striking out 101 hitters and walking 39.
- Viola (1988) finished with a FIP of 2.99, a LOB% of 83.3%, and a similarly-elite HR/9 of 0.75 while striking out 99 hitters and walking only 26.
Also, "Sweet Music" had an ERA+ of 154 and a WHIP of 1.13, while Gray currently possesses a nearly identical ERA+ of 150 and a WHIP of 1.27.
Gray commands the zone as an "east-to-west" pitcher utilizing his sinker and cutter to work the edges while keeping hitters off balance with his semblance of off-speed pitches, including a curveball, sweeper, and changeup. Gray, who has six different pitches in his arsenal, relies heavily on his fastball, and when his fastball, which has 96th-percentile spin, is on, Gray is nearly untouchable.
Viola is a different story. Viola struggled to be a consistently-efficient pitcher during his early seasons with the Twins from 1982-1986. But in 1987, Viola tinkered with his original changeup grip taught to him byformer Twins pitching coach Johnny Podres, and made it one of the best off-speed pitches in the game.
Gray is a fastball-dominant pitcher who works the edges of the zone with finesse. During Viola's playing days, he was a traditional left-handed pitcher who would work the fastball to set up his elite changeup, not too dissimilar from current Twins relief pitcher Jovani Moran.
When comparing pitchers of the 1980s to pitchers of today, the most prominent difference will always be their total number of innings pitched. In 1988, Viola pitched 255 1/3 innings. That will not happen with Gray or any Twins starting pitcher. If Gray and the Twins are lucky, he will finish the season between 160-180 innings pitched, and even that feels like an optimistic outlook.
Throwing fewer innings doesn't make what Gray is doing any less remarkable, and it is safe to assume that if the Twins forced Gray to throw seven to eight innings every start, his numbers would not be nearly as impressive. Gray will never compare to Viola in that aspect of the game, nor will any modern-day starting pitcher.
Despite having many functional differences, Gray most closely resembles Viola by being an above-average and reliable Twins starting pitcher, which is valuable and rare in any era of baseball.
Gray and Viola limit home runs, generate a significant amount of quality starts, and efficiently get through innings while limiting walks and producing respectable strikeout numbers. Many of these phenomena are further evidenced by Gray and Viola's advanced metrics.
Although Gray likely won't win the AL Cy Young Award this season, he is undoubtedly on track to have one of the best seasons for a starting pitcher in Minnesota Twins history. While not in the same realm as Santana's dominant seasons in the mid-2000s, Gray's season looks to conclude very similarly to Viola's 1988 Cy Young Award-winning campaign numbers wise.
Do you think Gray's first half is comparable to Viola's 1988? Do you see any other similarities between the two? Comment below.
